Sunday, June 8, 2014

FARC Election Ceasefire

The FARC declared a three week ceasefire and criticized Oscar Iván Zuluaga for being a fascist tool (here is the full text in Spanish on the FARC's website). The runoff election is June 15.

The logical questions: who does this help? Or does it even matter?

My immediate thought relates to power politics. The FARC just made a unilateral concession based largely on credible threats from Zuluaga to mpose much stricter conditions on the peace process. That provides a boost to Zuluaga, who (obviously with Alvaro Uribe whispering in his ear) makes the guerrillas nervous. I could imagine conservative voters in particular liking the idea of making them more nervous. On the other hand, the FARC has declared ceasefires before, even around elections, so this is not unprecedented even absent Zuluaga.

Does it matter? When the polls are neck and neck, it definitely could. One important factor is participation--turnout was not high (40% of eligible voters) in the first round so does this bring out conservatives in higher numbers? I have a harder time thinking of why this would increase turnout from centrists.









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