Pacific Alliancing

Michelle Bachelet, Juan Manuel Santos, Enrique Peña Nieto, and Ollanta Humala have a joint op-ed about the Pacific Alliance. Its basic thrust is that the free movement of goods and people will improve welfare.

One interesting point to consider is that both Bachelet and Humala were bashed when they took office for being leftists (remarkably, this was true even just recently for Bachelet). Santos, meanwhile, is center-right but bashed by his predecessor for, among other things, being willing to reach out to the left. So all the easy ideological labels don't work too well.

This is also notable for the "losing Latin America" argument I've periodically tried to counter. A majority of Latin American countries are market-oriented, which has consistently been a U.S. policy goal. Like it or not, it's reality. The Pacific Alliance is a good example of how Latin American countries can actually come together in pursuit of something the U.S. favors but is not directing. That's hardly "losing." It just means that leading is not synonymous with directing.

Screwing Up The U.S. Embassy in Peru

Here's an interesting inside look at how an embassy works (or doesn't) from Diplopundit. It's a discussion of the Peruvian embassy's inspection report. There are two takeaways:

First, an ambassador's management style really matters. The previous ambassador (unnamed but Wikipedia can tell you quicly it is Rose Likins).

For example, many mission staff reported that the former Ambassador occasionally criticized and belittled certain section chiefs and agency heads in front of their peers. Onerous and excessive paperwork processes impeded communication. The amount of time and energy required to move memoranda through the front office, as well as insistence on letter-perfect products—even for materials intended solely for internal use—discouraged initiative and information sharing.

Anyone who works in an office (including academia) can relate to this. Ambassadors are nominated according to criteria--connections to the president especially--that have nothing at all to do with leadership and management skills. I don't think anyone has done work on that topic, but backstabbing (or "frontstabbing" in this case!) can have an impact on relations with the government.

Second, not confirming an ambassador, which is currently the case for Peru, creates a vacuum.

Initially, the chargé and acting DCM adopted caretaker roles in anticipation of the Ambassador-designate’s quick arrival. Neither of them felt empowered to make significant changes, nor did they want to adopt changes only to make additional ones or reverse others after the new Ambassador’s arrival. By November 2013, they realized their new leadership duties would extend for an indeterminate period.

Several months went by before the embassy staff even knew what would happen, so things came to standstill. Even after the realization that the Senate wasn't going to do much of anything, the interim leaders can keep things going but it takes the authority of an ambassador to make substantive changes.

The post ends on a scathing note.

Probably the most impressive item in this report is that the previous ambassador departed post reportedly in September 2013 and four months later during the IG inspection, her ghost still haunted embassy operation.  Since she’s not even named in this report, there is no danger that this OIG report would merit a mention in her Certificate of Competency the next time she is nominated for a chief of mission position. 

Oh, you think things will get better? 

According to the GAO, the OIG is  supposed to inspect each overseas post once every 5 years; however, due to resource constraints, the OIG Office of Inspections has not done so. Thanks Congress!  The OIG Office of Inspections has conducted inspections in an average of 24 countries per year (including all constituent posts within each country) in fiscal years 2010 through 2013. Given their limited resources, according to OIG officials, they have prioritized higher-risk posts — which probably means more NEA, SCA, AF and less EAP, EUR, WHA post inspections.

This is the sort of insight that Congress should pay attention to, and the Senate in particular when it sits on nominations. But they won't.

Anticipating the ICJ Ruling for Chile and Peru

It's not easy to sum up the feeling as Chile and Peru wait for tomorrow's ruling from the International Court of Justice in The Hague--there is a lot of anticipation but not excessive, and there is nationalism but muted. As a reminder, the stake is a chunk of Pacific Ocean, which dates back to the War of the Pacific (with updates in 1952 and 1954) and is currently valuable for fishing, mostly anchovies:







Source: Defense-Update

Both presidents have made a show of meeting with their respective predecessors (well, not Fujimori!) and to that Sebastián Piñera even added a very public meeting of his National Security Council. I see this is as good for public consumption, as it makes a show of national unity even while the presidents make moderate statements.

So this is the sort of thing that Ollanta Humala has been saying:

“We have a shared commitment to abide by and enforce the judgment to be rendered by the International Court of Justice that will turn, I am sure, the paradigm of our relationship toward a profitable and enduring one for the future of our peoples,” President Ollanta Humala of Peru said from the United Nations General Assembly in September last year.

And this is the sort of thing that Piñera has been saying:

He added “we have also tried to maintain an atmosphere of harmony and peace with our Peruvian neighbors, because Peru will be our neighbor before, during and after the ruling by The Hague.”

Another positive sign is that Michelle Bachelet announced that Heraldo Muñoz, a very well-known and moderate diplomat, will be the new foreign minister. The Peruvian government immediately signalled its approval of the choice.

This matters much more in Peru than it does in Chile, since Peru has felt aggrieved for well over a century, while Chile has generally felt a sense of superiority, so at least on the surface can better afford to appear magnanimous. So probably the biggest question is what the Peruvian response will be if the decision goes against them. A secondary question might be what Peru's response is if Chile loses, but then drags its feet, since the government has indicated any change would have to be "gradual."

At any rate, we will see starting tomorrow.

New Military Mission: UFOs

Via The Telegraph: Peru's air force is going to reopen its UFO department. Not The Onion, it appears. Actually, I wrote a few years ago about a UFO sighting in Peru. Anyway, here's the scoop:

The Department of Investigation of Anomalous Aerial Phenomena, or DIFAA, will bring together sociologists, archaeologists and astronomers, as well as air force personnel, to analyze how often these events occur, where and what times, Vucetich said, according to the official Andina news agency.

Studying civil-military relations, this is not something that typically comes up. But hey, I'd rather have the military aimed at space aliens than internal security.

What's even funnier is that it was closed for several years due to "administrative problems." Which means what? Infiltration?

Alberto Fujimori's Uribe Impression

Via Lily Langtry on Twitter: Alberto Fujimori is on Twitter. He seems to be following Alvaro Uribe's example, which is for a former president to do a string of tweets denouncing the sitting president, though at least for Uribe the sitting president didn't try to overthrow him!

Some of it, too, is assertion of what a great guy he is, given that minor detail that he is in prison for crimes against humanity.

Ah, "el Pueblo," just like "the American people." Anyway, like Uribe he's crazy but worth following.

Juxtaposition: Peru

U.S. Embassy in Peru, 2005:

We share many of Rospigliosi's concerns regarding Ollanta Humala's rise in the polls and the possibility that the latter will establish a strong pro-Evo pro-Chavez political base following the 2006 elections.

U.S. President of the United States, 2013:

Peru is one of our strongest and most reliable partners in the hemisphere.  We have a strong commercial and trading relationship.  We cooperate on a wide range of security issues, including our counter-narcotics efforts.  And we spent most of our discussion focused on how we can further deepen this important bilateral relationship. 

This isn't new, but always striking. I think many in the United States are still waiting for Humala to announce that all this moderation was a joke and proclaim himself a chavista.